The Changeup Conundrum: Are Pitchers Losing Their Grip? 

The changeup: a pitch that can lull hitters into a false sense of security before sending them back to the dugout in utter disbelief. As we dive into the nuances of this often-underappreciated pitch, it’s clear that its effectiveness varies widely among pitchers.

Let’s talk about the trends we’re seeing in 2024. The average usage of changeups has been on a decline since its peak in 2020. Is this a sign that pitchers are moving away from traditional off-speed pitches in favor of more dominant fastballs and sliders? Or could it be that the hitters are simply getting better at recognizing and adjusting to changeups?

Consider the data: Miles Mikolas had a staggering 54.8% zone rate on his changeup, yet it was hit for a .394 average. Meanwhile, Paul Skenes, with a mere 1.8% called strike rate, still managed to dominate with a 30.6% swinging strike rate. What does this tell us about the relationship between pitch location and effectiveness?

Here’s a bold prediction: as we move deeper into the 2025 season, we might see a resurgence of the changeup as pitchers adapt to the evolving hitting strategies. Could we witness a new wave of pitchers who master this pitch and turn the tide back in favor of off-speed dominance?

I want to hear your thoughts! What’s your experience with changeups in your fantasy leagues? Have you found any hidden gems who excel with this pitch? Do you think the decline in changeup usage is a trend that will continue, or will we see a revival? Let’s discuss!