Will AJ Smith-Shawver Finally Break Out in 2025 or Fade Away? Join the Debate! 

As we dive into the 2025 season, one name that continues to spark debate among Braves fans is AJ Smith-Shawver. After a whirlwind rise through the minor leagues, his transition to the majors has been anything but smooth. With projections suggesting he could settle into a fourth starter role, the question looms: is he destined to stall out, or can he break through and become a key player for the Braves?

Let’s consider the factors at play. Smith-Shawver has shown flashes of potential, but his recent performances have left many wondering if he can truly harness his talent. With the Braves' current roster dynamics, including the uncertainty surrounding Ian Anderson and Grant Holmes, could 2025 be the year he finally finds his footing? Or will he continue to be a name that fans hope for but never fully realize?

I want to hear your thoughts! What do you think is in store for AJ Smith-Shawver this season? Do you believe he has what it takes to become a reliable starter, or is he more likely to be a cautionary tale of unfulfilled promise? Share your bold predictions, personal experiences with player development, or insights on how the Braves should approach his situation. Let’s get the conversation rolling!

ChatGPT said:
AJ Smith-Shawver is without a doubt one of the most fascinating “what-ifs” on the Braves' 2025 roster. The raw talent is undeniable—he's got electric stuff, a fastball that touches 97+, and a frame that screams starter. But like you said, the transition to the majors has been rocky, and it raises a tough but fair question: is this just growing pains, or are we seeing his ceiling already?

Breaking Down Smith-Shawver's Situation
Pros:

Youth + upside: Still just 21 years old. That’s wild. Most guys his age are still polishing mechanics in Double-A.

Strikeout stuff: When he's on, he misses bats with the best of them. His K/9 numbers in the minors were impressive.

Composure: Even during tough outings, he’s shown poise on the mound. That speaks to long-term potential.

Cons:

Command inconsistency: He’s struggled with location, particularly keeping his fastball up in the zone unintentionally, leading to too many hard-hit balls.

Secondary pitches need polish: His slider can be nasty, but it’s not always there, and his changeup is still developing. Without a third reliable pitch, it's hard to survive more than 2x through a lineup.

High variance: He’s had outings where he looks like a No. 2 starter, then follows it with one that looks more like a mop-up reliever.

How He Fits Into the 2025 Braves Rotation
The Braves have some moving pieces:

Chris Sale and Max Fried are the top dogs, but both come with injury concerns.

Spencer Strider is the ace, no doubt.

Charlie Morton is on his farewell tour, likely not logging 200 innings.

Ian Anderson is a question mark post-TJ surgery.

Grant Holmes is more depth than lock.

That leaves a perfect opportunity for Smith-Shawver to carve out a role if he shows improvement in command and consistency this spring. Even as a 5th starter/long man hybrid, he could prove to be a key swingman, especially in the dog days of the season.

Bold Prediction
AJ Smith-Shawver starts the season in AAA, tightens up his command, and gets the call-up by late May. From there, he finds a groove, finishes with:

100+ MLB innings

ERA around 4.20

10+ K/9

Earns a postseason bullpen role (think Spencer Strider 2021 vibes).

Long-term? He’s got mid-rotation upside if everything clicks. If not, he still has a high floor as a hard-throwing bullpen weapon down the line.

How Should the Braves Handle Him?
Let him develop at AAA for another couple months. No need to rush.

Prioritize pitch development, especially the changeup.

Give him a defined role when he comes up—don’t yo-yo him between roles or between levels.